The 25% Mark of the Beast

Exactly a month ago I was in Los Angeles when this pandemic began to unfold. I was driving with my brother for his bachelor party. We had it all laid out: pub crawl in downtown during St. Patrick's Day weekend, then a lot of shots and maybe a topless bar? Maybe. But as the hours passed we got call after call of all the places we were going to - they were cancelling. Then the worst happen: my brother's wedding reception location got cancelled, then the band and DJ, followed by calls from family and friends, telling us they ain't coming out to Arizona because of the Rona.

It was like an invisible atomic bomb exploded and we were in the wake of the radioactive fallout. Before us the landscape changed. People began wearing any kind of mask, companies closed their doors, everyone posted their tacky 8x11 office printer sheet on their doors which included the words "due to the ongoing situation regarding COVID-19" telling us new hours and schedule. Some just shut the doors and turned off the lights. The Asian restaurant on Sunset Blvd we ate at was shockingly empty. It was actually a breath of fresh air seeing everyone huddle their regular lives back into their homes. People simply disappeared. Nature came back with sunny days and fresh breathable air.

On the way back I realized my good friend mentioned to me that the crash was coming. It was going to be worst than 2009. People by the millions were going to go broke. I didn't really expect much out of all this...until I returned back to Tucson.

It was a crash! It IS a crash! I ain't blaming nobody but I know a crash when I see one and it is bizarre and surreal. Like money for a moment is just some play number we all were fighting penny by penny for. Then zoom, boom and gloom it's gone! Over the drive back all my stocks triggered a sell. I had hit my 8% drop threshold and I'm glad I did. At it's worst I could have lost almost half my portfolio. Instead I sucked it up and waited until the trough settled. That brings me to my 25% point.

I noticed the major FAANG and heavy hitter stocks ate a quarter of their value because of COVID. DJIA actually stopped at 19k. The rest of the markets aligned with the loss and too took a hit. So as the trough began to rise into a crest I decided to click buy. Don't get me wrong, I bought a little too soon and lost about a grand but I held fast and rode it out. I could barely look at my stocks but nonetheless I hung on. The loss of just 4% is scary. Had I backed out it would've been a net loss of 12 points and that wouldn't make me want to do the markets again.

This week got me back. Big time. Last week I broke even and today I'm up 5.6%. I can take it out once I reach my 10% (conservative mark) or 15% (midrange mark) but the truth is my strategy is the long game for that 25% (we're a bull market again mark). It took a few shots of tequila and some realization to get me there mentally, that I should put in now, like NOW before that wave begins to rise.

For the longest time I always had this idea I should buy up low price stocks (~$10<$20) with the hopes of them rising to gargantuan levels. But reality never surprises me when my big losers are the low pricers. Hey, idiot, there's a reason why they're low!

The truth is heavy stocks, like cutting weight takes time, but putting on the fat is easy. That whole "too big to fail" motto really means we're all a bunch of fatties and we're too big to get lean. Too big to get off the couch, so we gorge while we think how we're going to get fit again. Same goes for money. In this case, while the world is going through a pandemic, our markets did the Keto diet for a month, now they're back on donuts and cheese balls. I'm good with that. Like my good friend heard from his father, "Money goes where money is." Ain't in the truth! I think it's all worth the risk.

What I'm in at the moment:

BABA - big competitor to Amazon and JD, who ain't online? - 23% virus loss
BILI - China is making a content comeback, I can feel it - 31% virus loss
INTC - had my hand in AMD, why not try the competitor plus dividends - 30% virus loss
JD - little competitor to Amazon and Alibaba, right now web is king - 9% virus loss
MCD - still trying to make my gains back, let's go! - 29% virus loss
NIO - I've got faith in small electrical transportation - 47% virus loss
VTI - solid dividends and my first try at an index fund, wish me luck! - 31% virus loss

That's an average of about 28% virus loss, give or take a few points...


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